SDO Eclipse Flare

From a joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report (#44) released 2/13/14:

there is a moderate to slight chance for an X-class flare from 2/14 through 2/16.

This activity is associated with the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs first observed on 2/11 & 2/12.

Although quite active for the past few weeks, the sun’s geomagnetic activity has be quiet for the past 24 hours.  It is expected to continue to be active intermittently over the next 30 days per this report.

What does all this mean to us here on Earth?  If the sun launches an X-class solar flare, we might find accompanying larger CME activity.  However, most scientists are not predicting this.  At a minimum, we are looking at satellite and radio communication disruptions, and some radiation worries for high altitude aircraft as well as the ISS.  I am however more concerned with the unbalanced nature of the sun’s sunspot & geomagnetic activity with both maybe precursors to a much larger event (see Carrington Flare) of the kind we have feared.

We will continue to update you as we know more.

Dr. Reid